The political atmosphere on Capitol Hill has dramatically changed as a result the November 2 mid-term elections, with Republicans capturing control of the House of Representatives and winning six new seats in the Senate.

As a result of these changes, SFA and the snack food industry can expect to have a more favorable reception on Capitol Hill as we express our concerns about major issues that are in play. We were pleased that nearly every candidate that we supported through SnackPAC, SFA’s political action committee, was victorious, and we thank all SFA members who helped to make this possible through their SnackPAC contributions.

The following is an analysis of the election results, prepared by SFA government affairs consultant Paul Bleiberg of Michael Torrey Associates:

House

Overall, Republicans rode the wave of voter discontent back to the majority, capturing 61 new seats and increasing their numbers from 178 to 239; Democrats saw their ranks decrease from 255 to 186.  In total, the 112th Congress will include 94 new House members, including 69 Republicans and 25 Democrats.

John Boehner (R-OH) is all but certain to ascend to the Speakership come January, while the Democratic hierarchy remains an open question.  Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is seeking to remain the top Democrat, having announced her bid for Minority Leader, but it is unclear whether Steny Hoyer (D-MD) or Jim Clyburn (D-SC) will serve as Minority Whip.

The makeup of the House Agriculture Committee, which oversees farm policy and several nutrition programs, including SNAP, will likely change from 28 Democrats and 18 Republicans to 20 Democrats and 25 Republicans.  Frank Lucas (R-OK) is expected to take the Chairmanship, while Collin Peterson (D-MN) will likely serve as the Ranking Member.  Lucas has expressed interest in slowing down the 2012 Farm Bill process, as he expects the budget baseline numbers to be higher in another year.  Congress will face considerable fiscal pressures next year, and Lucas is reported to want to protect agriculture from further significant cuts. A full list of the deposed Committee members is included below.  The Agriculture panel took a larger hit than most Committees, unsurprisingly given the Democratic Party’s successes in rural and midwestern areas in 2006 and 2008.

The Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over food safety legislation and multiple health care matters, will likely see a shift from 36 Democrats and 23 Republicans to 27 Democrats and 32 Republicans. While Henry Waxman (D-CA) is likely to remain as the top Democrat, it is unclear who will emerge on the Republican side to Chair the Committee. Joe Barton (R-TX), currently the top Republican and formerly the Chairman, is expected to seek a waiver from Leadership to lead the Committee once again, but his comments regarding the BP oil spill earlier this year have put his chances in jeopardy. Other top contenders include Fred Upton (R-MI), John Shimkus (R-IL), and Cliff Stearns (R-FL). Upton, a moderate, is viewed as the frontrunner by many.

Senate

Changes in the Senate were less tumultuous than in the House.  Republicans captured six seats, increasing their numbers from 41 to 48.  In total, the Senate will include 9 new Republicans and 3 new Democrats. However, Democrats will still hold a majority with at least 51 seats; the race in Alaska has yet to be declared. Given Majority Leader Harry Reid’s victory in Nevada over Sharron Angle, no major leadership changes are expected in the Senate.

The ratio on the Agriculture Committee, which oversees nutrition and farm policy, will only change slightly, as Republicans will likely increase their ranks from 9 to 10 seats while Democrats see a decrease from 12 to 11.  Of more significance is Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln’s (D-AR) loss to Representative John Boozman, who will potentially be seated on the Committee. Lincoln’s loss clears the way for Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) to take the gavel.  While more senior members could make a bid, none are expected to do so, as they all hold more powerful Chairmanships.  Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) will likely remain as the panel’s Ranking Member.

While most other Chairmanships are unlikely to change hands, Republicans are likely to play a game of musical chairs with a few of their top Committee slots. Senate Finance Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is term-limited in his post, so he is expected to take the top minority spot on the Judiciary Committee. In turn, Judiciary Ranking Member Jeff Sessions (R-AL) is poised to replace Judd Gregg (R-NH), who is retiring, atop the Budget Committee. Lastly, Orrin Hatch (R-UT) will likely ascend to the top Republican post on the Finance panel.